Obama plan on tax-exemption limit faces uphill battle
Sep 13, 2011, 1:04 p.m.
CHICAGO (Reuters) - A provision in President Barack Obama's jobs act that would reduce the attractiveness of tax-exempt bonds for higher-income investors is unlikely to be passed by Congress, analysts and municipal market participants said on Tuesday.
The American Jobs Act of 2011, which Obama unveiled before Congress on Thursday, targets annual incomes over $200,000 for individuals and over $250,000 for families by limiting tax deductions to 28 percent of their income starting January 1, 2013 from the current 35 percent.
The limitation would cause yields on tax-exempt bonds to rise, boosting borrowing costs for states, cities, schools and others in the $3.7 trillion municipal bond market, where wealthy investors have traditionally turned to reduce their taxable income, according to market watchers.
"Such a change, we believe, would not be agreed to by the Senate Finance Committee and House Ways and Means Committee unless it was part of a sweeping, broad-based reform of the tax code and this kind of comprehensive reform will take a significant amount of time to put together," said Chris Mauro, director of municipal bond research at RBC Capital Markets, in a report on Tuesday.
Mauro added that with muni issuers still under fiscal stress, "members of Congress will be hard-pressed to justify taking any action that would make it more expensive for states and local governments to finance new projects or refinance higher-coupon debt."
Chris Shayne, senior market strategist at BondDesk Group, agreed.
"This is a fundamental flaw in the bill, given that the whole point is to stimulate economic development and government-sponsored hiring," he said.
Shayne added that while a deduction cap would raise yields and reduce retail demand in the short-term, high-quality general obligation and essential service revenue bonds will likely continue to be viewed as safe investments for a possibly wider audience of investors.
There are currently about two times as many muni bond trades each month as there are corporate trades, according to BondDesk. "Most of that discrepancy is because of the tax advantage," Shayne said. "So it seems likely that some of that excess demand for munis will transfer back to corporate or other asset classes."
The deduction limit is part of Obama's plan to pay for his $447 billion program to spur hiring and revive a stalled economy. But top congressional Republicans on Tuesday came out swinging against eliminating tax breaks.
"From a public policy perspective I feel very, very confident. From the politics of the situation, I don't know what will happen," said Michael Bird, federal affairs counsel for the National Conference of State Legislatures.
A so-called super-committee, made up of members of both parties and both congressional houses, will soon suggest where to slash spending to reduce the U.S. deficit. States worry the cuts will hit as they struggle to recover from the 2007-2009 economic recession, but they are also resigned to receiving fewer dollars from the federal government in the next decade.
"States are going to have fewer tools in their toolbox," Bird said, adding that wiping out the demand for their debt along with the federal cuts would "mean we will be economically negative long-term."