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Venezuelan election race starts, Chavez confident

Sep 14, 2011, 7:36 a.m.
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez talks to the media during a meeting with the representatives of the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA) at Miraflores Palace in Caracas September 9, 2011. REUTERS/Carlos Garcia Rawlins

By Andrew Cawthorne

CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuela's 2012 presidential election campaign was unofficially underway on Wednesday, with President Hugo Chavez and his foes both rallying supporters and forecasting victory next month.

Election authorities set the vote for October 7 -- day of the patron saint of Chavez's birthplace Sabaneta, and also the birthday of a leading opposition leader -- meaning the South American OPEC member is in for a noisy year's politicking.

"I give the order to prepare for the battle and the great victory on October 7," Chavez said, after again reassuring supporters he would soon be fit from cancer treatment.

The 57-year-old Chavez's cancer diagnostic and ongoing chemotherapy treatment have given him a small sympathy bounce in opinion polls, where his approval remains above 50 percent,

Yet ill health has also hurt his aura of invincibility.

The voluble socialist leader has led Venezuela since 1999, remolding the economy along statistic lines and turning himself into one of the world's most vocal U.S. critics. But he faces an opposition movement more united than ever and set to rally round a unity candidate after a primary election in February.

Analysts say that while Chavez has vastly more resources to sway voters, it is an open race given how divided the nation is and the ongoing uncertainty surrounding his health.

The president is due to start a fourth session of chemotherapy in coming days. He said that it should be the last, but few details are known about his precise condition after surgery in Cuba to remove a tumor in the pelvic area.

"LET THE GAMES BEGIN"

Though minimizing public appearances and following a stricter personal routine on doctor's orders, Chavez has remained ubiquitous via near-daily phone calls to state media and constant Twitter messages.

That has analysts predicting a "virtual" campaign rather than his usual grueling criss-crossing of the nation.

"Ill or not, Chavez is already in campaign mode," said UK-based think tank LatinNews.

An October election date, earlier than Venezuela's traditional December timing for presidential votes, gives Chavez less time to recover but also means a shorter campaign that would be less demanding on his health.

After its internal vote for a February primary, the opposition Democratic Unity movement will have two months less than expected for campaigning, but that might not be a bad thing given its inferior finances.

If the opposition is to unseat Chavez, who has held them off with relative ease during most of the numerous national votes since he came to power, its leaders must remain united.

Analysts say the opposition must also make a mammoth effort to get across Venezuela, particularly in poor urban and remote rural areas that are Chavez strongholds, and it has to project policies that go further than just opposing him.

Opposition supporters trust that Venezuelans' increasing irritation with failing services like electricity, untamed inflation, and crime levels on a par with war zones, will outweigh Chavez's advantages including the sympathy factor.

"Chavez's downward tendency will continue when daily realities displace the vicissitudes of the president's health among citizens' worries," pro-opposition newspaper editor Teodoro Petkoff said. "Everything points toward victory."

Chavez, though, retains fanatical support among many of Venezuela's poor majority and has a big war-chest to spend thanks to the high price of oil. Already, he has launched a massive house-building campaign to try and meet one of Venezuelans' main complaints in time for the election.

Markets will watch every twist and turn in the campaign.

"Next year's presidential election is Venezuela's most important non-oil credit driver," Nomura bank said in a report titled "Let the games begin".

"The possibility of a democratic transition of power could reverse ongoing credit deterioration, which would herald a re-pricing of Venezuela's sovereign risk."

Favorite to win the opposition's primary is Henrique Capriles Radonski, the 39-year-old governor of Miranda state whose political model is former Brazilian leader Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's mix of social justice and market economics.

"I'm ready to give peace to the nation," he said.

(Additional reporting by Diego Ore; Editing by Jack Kimball)

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